Kenyan Coast Malaria Risk (0–10): Live Tool + What Tourists Should Know

Areas: Diani • Mombasa • Mtwapa • Kilifi • Watamu • Malindi • Lamu Last fetched: — Includes: 14‑day forecast + 12‑month min/max

“How bad is malaria right now?” On the Kenyan coast, conditions can change quickly—especially after rain. This page gives you a simple, tourist-friendly 0–10 score based on recent rainfall and temperature, plus a 14‑day forecast and practical tips for evenings and nights.

On this page
Live malaria suitability score (0–10)

Weather-driven proxy (not a real-time case feed). Solid line = past; dotted line = 14‑day forecast. The tool updates whenever the page is opened, and auto-refreshes periodically while the page is open.

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Click a marker (or use the dropdown). Hover the chart for day‑by‑day details. Shortcut: press U to update.
Note: The score uses rainfall from 7–21 days earlier, so the tool fetches extra prior days in the background and only plots the last 60 days + forecast.
Daily score timeline
Past 60 days + next 14 days forecast
past (computed from observed weather)
forecast (computed from forecast weather)
12‑month min/max: loading…
Important: This score is a climate suitability proxy and can’t tell you your personal infection risk. For bite prevention and prophylaxis decisions, follow official travel health guidance and medical advice.
Model: rain weighted 7–21 days earlier (peak ~14 days), plus 14‑day mean temperature; coastal baseline.
How the score is calculated (plain English)
  • Rain lag: rain from about 1–3 weeks ago is weighted (peak around 2 weeks) because that’s the window when new breeding sites can produce more adult mosquitoes.
  • Temperature: warm conditions increase suitability up to a point; the tool uses a simple “best range” curve and a 14‑day mean.
  • Baseline: the coast starts higher than highland areas because conditions are generally more suitable year-round.

What the score means (and what it does NOT mean)

The 0–10 number is a weather-based suitability score. It estimates how favorable recent conditions have been for malaria-carrying mosquitoes. It’s useful for answering: “Should I be extra strict about bite prevention this week?”

It does not tell you confirmed local case numbers, and it can’t replace medical advice. If you feel unwell after travel—especially with fever—seek medical care quickly.

Why rainfall 1–3 weeks ago matters

Mosquitoes need water to reproduce. After rain, small pools and containers can become breeding sites. Because mosquitoes take time to develop, the “impact” of rainfall often shows up later—commonly around 1–3 weeks, which is why the tool uses a delayed rainfall window.

Common breeding spots near hotels

  • storm drains & blocked gutters
  • construction pits and puddles
  • garden containers & plant saucers
  • low spots that hold water after rain

When bites matter most

  • typically from sunset to sunrise
  • especially in calm, humid evenings
  • higher risk near lagoons/mangroves or standing water

What to do on high-score nights (simple checklist)

If the score is high or very high, don’t panic—just tighten your routine for evenings and nights.

Evening routine

  • repellent from sunset (reapply if you sweat)
  • light long sleeves / trousers after dusk
  • choose breezier places to sit
  • avoid still-water garden corners at night

Bedtime routine

  • close balcony doors & check window screens
  • use A/C so the room can stay sealed
  • use a net if screens/A-C are unreliable
  • keep a fan running for airflow comfort

Are malaria mosquitoes common at the beachfront?

They can be. Windy beachfront rooms sometimes feel better than sheltered gardens—but mosquitoes can still appear if there are breeding sites nearby (puddles after rain, drains, lagoons, mangroves, creek edges, or construction).

Practical takeaway: treat any night bite as potentially risky and follow your prevention routine regardless of whether you’re “right on the beach.”

Room setup: A/C, fans, screens (and the A/C temperature question)

The biggest protection is barriers: intact window/door screens, and keeping doors/windows closed at night. Air conditioning helps because it lets you keep the room sealed.

No “magic A/C temperature” guarantees no mosquitoes. If you want a practical setting, choose a comfortable cool range (many travelers pick ~22–24°C), but prioritize closed doors + good screens. If your room isn’t well sealed, use a bed net.

FAQ

Does the tool update automatically?

Yes. It fetches fresh weather data every time the page is opened. While the page is open, it refreshes periodically. For a “daily update” experience, tomorrow’s visitors see tomorrow’s data.

Is this a real-time malaria case counter?

No. It’s a weather-driven proxy intended for travel planning and bite-prevention awareness.

Should I take malaria tablets for the Kenyan coast?

That depends on your itinerary and medical situation. Use this tool as “situational awareness,” and follow official travel health guidance and medical advice for medication decisions.

Technical notes: The chart shows last 60 days + 14-day forecast. Because the score depends on rainfall from 7–21 days earlier and a 14-day temperature mean, the tool fetches additional prior days (“warm-up” history) so early chart values are computed correctly.

Data: Weather data are fetched from Open‑Meteo (model + reanalysis/archives) at page load and periodically while open. Map tiles are from OpenStreetMap.