Areas: Diani • Mombasa • Mtwapa • Kilifi • Watamu • Malindi • Lamu Includes: 14-day forecast + 12-month min/max Note: Weather-based proxy (not case counts)

“How bad is malaria right now?” On Kenya’s coast, conditions can change quickly—especially after rain. This page gives you a tourist-friendly 0–10 suitability score based on recent rainfall and temperature, plus a 14-day forecast and a 12-month context range so you can decide how strict to be with bite prevention.

On this page (click to open)
Live malaria suitability score (0–10) Solid line = past; dotted line = 14-day forecast. The tool updates whenever the page is opened and periodically while it stays open.

If the embedded tool doesn’t load in your browser, open it full-screen here: Kenyan Coast malaria tool

What the score means (and what it does NOT mean)

The 0–10 number is a weather-based suitability score. It estimates how favorable recent conditions have been for malaria-carrying mosquitoes. It’s useful for answering: “Should I be extra strict about bite prevention this week?”

It does not show confirmed local case numbers and it can’t replace medical advice. If you feel unwell after travel—especially with fever—seek medical care quickly.

Why rainfall 1–3 weeks ago matters

Mosquitoes need water to reproduce. After rain, small pools and containers can become breeding sites. Because mosquitoes take time to develop, the “impact” of rainfall often shows up later—commonly around 1–3 weeks. That’s why the tool uses a delayed rainfall window.

Common breeding spots near hotels

  • storm drains & blocked gutters
  • construction pits and puddles
  • garden containers & plant saucers
  • low spots that hold water after rain

When bites matter most

  • typically from sunset to sunrise
  • especially in calm, humid evenings
  • higher risk near lagoons/mangroves or standing water

What to do on high-score nights (simple checklist)

If the score is high or very high, don’t panic—just tighten your routine for evenings and nights.

Evening routine

  • repellent from sunset (reapply if you sweat)
  • light long sleeves / trousers after dusk
  • choose breezier places to sit
  • avoid still-water garden corners at night

Bedtime routine

  • close balcony doors & check window screens
  • use A/C so the room can stay sealed
  • use a net if screens/A-C are unreliable
  • keep a fan running for comfort

Are malaria mosquitoes common at the beachfront?

They can be. Windy beachfront rooms sometimes feel better than sheltered gardens—but mosquitoes can still appear if there are breeding sites nearby (puddles after rain, drains, lagoons, mangroves, creek edges, or construction).

Practical takeaway: treat any night bite as potentially risky and follow your prevention routine regardless of whether you’re “right on the beach.”

Room setup: A/C, fans, screens (and the A/C temperature question)

The biggest protection is barriers: intact window/door screens, and keeping doors/windows closed at night. Air conditioning helps because it lets you keep the room sealed.

No “magic A/C temperature” guarantees no mosquitoes. If you want a practical setting, choose a comfortable cool range (many travelers pick ~22–24°C), but prioritize closed doors + good screens. If your room isn’t well sealed, use a bed net.

FAQ

Does the tool update automatically?

Yes. The tool fetches fresh weather data every time it’s opened. While it remains open, it refreshes periodically. For a “daily update” experience, tomorrow’s visitors see tomorrow’s data.

Is this a real-time malaria case counter?

No. It’s a weather-driven proxy intended for travel planning and bite-prevention awareness.

Should I take malaria tablets for the Kenyan coast?

That depends on your itinerary and medical situation. Use this tool as situational awareness, and follow official travel health guidance and medical advice for medication decisions.

Technical note: the tool uses rainfall from 7–21 days earlier (peak around ~14 days) plus a 14-day temperature mean, so it needs a little “warm-up history” behind the scenes.