Africa Malaria Risk Score
Choose a country, then a national park, coast/island or specific place. See.Africa combines the selected area’s malaria-transmission baseline with current weather conditions to produce one simple 0–10 malaria risk score.
How the malaria risk score works
There is no hidden AI judgement and no hidden case database. The score is deliberately simple and auditable. Three things happen:
We start with the selected location’s malaria-transmission baseline
Each destination is placed in one of four transparent bands using WHO malaria-free status and CDC travel-malaria guidance, with local adjustments for clearly malaria-free or lower-transmission tourism areas.
| Baseline | Maximum score before weather | Meaning in this tool |
|---|---|---|
| None | 0.0 | No local malaria transmission in the baseline used. |
| Limited | 3.5 | Very limited, low or geographically restricted transmission. |
| Seasonal / partial | 6.5 | Transmission is present but strongly seasonal or geographically restricted. |
| Established | 10.0 | Established local malaria transmission is part of the destination risk picture. |
Current weather moves the score within that local band
The weather part is intentionally easy to understand: 60% temperature suitability + 40% recent rainfall suitability.
Those two layers become the single 0–10 number
Weather can move a destination from 20% to 100% of its baseline maximum. This prevents a known malaria-transmission area from appearing to have zero risk simply because the last few weeks were dry, while a malaria-free area remains at 0 regardless of weather.
Show the exact calculation rules
Exact algorithm used by the page:
- Temperature suitability is 0 at 17°C or colder and at 34°C or hotter. It rises linearly from 17°C to 25°C, where it equals 1.0, then falls linearly from 25°C to 34°C.
- For rainfall, the tool looks 4–47 days back. Rain close to 14 days ago gets the largest weight. The weighted rainfall average is divided by 4 mm/day and capped at 1.0. The 4 mm/day threshold is a See.Africa modelling choice, not a medical threshold.
- Weather suitability = 60% temperature suitability + 40% rainfall suitability.
- The selected baseline has a maximum of 0, 3.5, 6.5 or 10.
- Final score = baseline maximum × (20% + 80% × weather suitability), then rounded to one decimal. If the baseline is “None”, the score is 0.0.
Why the 20% floor? It is a conservative See.Africa modelling choice. Weather affects transmission conditions, but malaria risk does not disappear instantly in an endemic area after a dry or unusually cool period.
What the score does — and does not — tell you
Limitations — fully disclosed
The score is intentionally transparent, but it is not a clinical model. It does not ingest local malaria case surveillance, parasite prevalence, mosquito-trap counts, insecticide resistance, bed-net coverage, indoor residual spraying, antimalarial use, traveler immunity, housing quality, standing water next to a specific hotel, or local outbreak reports. Baseline categories are curated by See.Africa from official malaria-status/travel-health sources and can lag a very recent local change. Weather is model/grid data rather than a sensor at the exact lodge or beach.
Altitude and local climate influence the live weather data, but country guidance can contain finer geographic exclusions than this tourism-location database. Always check current official advice for the exact route you will travel.
Frequently asked questions
What does the Africa Malaria Risk Score measure?
It is a comparative planning indicator that combines a destination’s malaria-transmission baseline with weather conditions linked to mosquito and parasite suitability. It is not a diagnosis or a personal probability of infection.
Does a low score mean I do not need malaria precautions?
No. Risk can vary within a destination and official advice can change. Use mosquito-bite prevention and check current guidance for your exact route with an official travel-health source or qualified clinician.
Why can the score change over time?
For destinations with a malaria baseline, the live model also considers recent temperature and rainfall. Weather can affect transmission suitability, while the destination baseline remains the stronger underlying signal.
Where should I check official malaria travel advice?
Use current country and route-specific guidance from sources such as the WHO and CDC, and seek personalised medical advice before travel when appropriate.
Sources
WHO malaria-free status: WHO Global Malaria Programme — malaria-free countries and territories.
Travel malaria baseline: CDC — Malaria Information and Prophylaxis by Country.
Weather: Open-Meteo Weather API, using daily mean 2 m temperature and precipitation for each selected coordinate.
Temperature relationship: published thermal-biology work places falciparum-malaria transmission suitability at roughly 17–34°C with an optimum near 25°C. See: Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease.